Foresight on Demand

“Retail 2040” Scenarios, Visions and Roadmaps

Authors:
Totti Könnölä & Martin Jariego (Insight Foresight Institute)
Dana Wasserbacher, Susanne Giesecke (Austrian Institute of Technology)
Daniel Cassolà, Irina Rachieru, Riccardo Enei & Mario Gualdi (ISINNOVA)
Bianca Dragomir & Roxana Dimitriu (Institutul Prospectiva)

This report provides the results of the scenario work by elaborating four alternative future scenarios of the EU retail ecosystem in 2040 as well as of the visioning of the desired European retail ecosystem in 2040 and roadmaps to reach the vision. These findings help retail stakeholders to explore possible long-term developments and consider their next steps within the broad retail ecosystem. Section 2 describes four alternative scenarios developed and Section 3 the visions and roadmaps. Both the scenarios as well as the roadmaps detail implications for the retail policy, which will support the next step of the project in developing relevant recommendations for policymakers and other stakeholders.

This is work in progress, an intermediary result of the project and is meant to further stimulate reflection and discussion among stakeholders.

Foresight on Demand

“Retail 2040” – Stakeholder Survey Results

Authors: Valentijn Bilsen, Jean Ledoux (IDEA Consult)

This study contributes to providing a better understanding of the potential drivers and barriers for the different types of operators in the retail ecosystem with retailers, wholesalers and retail experts.

The survey was sent out to stakeholders such as online and offline traders, online platforms, as well as broader value chain actors. Large and small companies were addressed. The survey was translated into nine languages: English, French, German, Dutch, Spanish, Italian, Lithuanian, Romanian, and Finnish.

The survey was open from March to April 2022 – thus during the intermediate post-COVID-19 period where short-term effects had been observed clearly. Furthermore, 2022 is in the midst of the EU’s move towards a greener and more digital economy, e.g., Digital Europe, Green Deal. Yet, these political ambitious were challenged by the uncertainties in the energy markets due to the war in Ukraine.

This is work in progress, an intermediary result of the project and is meant to further stimulate reflection and discussion among stakeholders. 

Foresight on Demand

Future sheets: key factors of change in the
European retail ecosystem 

Authors: Daniel Cassolà, Riccardo Enei, Mario Gualdi (ISINNOVA)

This “Horizon Scanning” report addresses trends that are relevant for the retail ecosystem in 2040.  It summarises the work done in the initial steps of classification of the factors of change in the European retail ecosystem, and further development and refinement of the factors of change through the implementation of the Dynamic Argumentative Delphi survey. The 50 Future Sheets are described and classified in accordance with the ecosystem actors as well as with the STEEP framework (Socio-cultural, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political domains), supporting the identification of key domains that in turn can orient the work of policymakers engaged in the development of suitable retail strategies.

This is work in progress, an intermediary result of the project, meant to further stimulate reflection and discussion among stakeholders. 

Foresight on Demand

“Retail 2040” Report on Dynamic Argumentative Delphi 

Authors: Bianca Dragomir, Radu Gheorghiu, Roxana Dimitriu, Paul Pleșcan, Adrian Curaj (Institutul de Prospectiva)

The survey used the Dynamic Argumentative Delphi (DAD) method, which was developed by the experts at Institutul de Prospectiva. The goal of DAD is to enable consensus building (in this case on the likelihood of certain developments in 2040) among a large number of participants, by making explicit the arguments supporting their evaluation.

This is work in progress, an intermediary result of the project and is meant to further stimulate reflection and discussion among stakeholders. 

Foresight on Demand

The EU retail sector based on the input-output analysis

Authors: Dr Pijus Krūminas, Tobias Wassermann (Visionary Analytics)

This part of the study looks at the positioning of the EU retail sector in the global value flow system by analysing international input-output data. The primary focus here is on the forward and backward links of production flows to and from the EU retail sector as well as global positioning of the EU retail sector in terms of: i) the origins of direct and indirect value added in exports of EU retail sector; ii) the sector’s value added contribution to other sectors’ exports as a means to assess the global value chains connections; and iii) composition of domestic and foreign value added embedded in exports of the EU retail sector.

This is work in progress, an intermediary result of the report, meant to further stimulate reflection and discussion among stakeholders. 

Foresight on Demand

Retail Ecosystem 2040: Scoping of the ecosystem

Authors: Laura Roman, Carmen Moreno, Alexandre Lotito, Maialen Perez (Technopolis Group)

The retail sector is undergoing a tremendous transformation, even beyond the trends imagined in a sectoral innovation report a decade ago. COVID-19 “has dramatically disrupted the sector, with the shock differing massively between brick-and-mortar versus online shops, essential versus non-essential stores, and small versus large retailers”. Changes in this sector will not only affect the many people who work in the sector but every consumer and thus every citizen. Thus, it is important to describe the changes in the ecosystem, to understand its future potential shape.